How to read a 16-day forecast
A long forecast is very useful if you know what to look at and how much to trust each number. This guide explains the figures you see on each weather page and why far-off days are less precise. It is general information: forecasts are estimates and are not official.
How much to trust each day
- Days 1 to 7, reliable: the forecast usually gets temperature and whether it will rain right.
- Days 8 to 10, indicative: good for the general trend, but details may change.
- Days 11 to 16, trend: tells you whether it will be warmer, colder or rainier than normal, not the exact weather of each day.
- The further away, the greater the chance of change: check again as the date gets closer.
Rain probability and millimeters
- Rain probability (for example 70%) is the chance that measurable rain falls at that place in the period shown. It does not say how much it will rain or for how long.
- Millimeters show how much rain is expected: 1 mm is a drizzle, and large amounts in a short time can cause flooding. A day can have a high probability and few millimeters, or the other way around.
Wind and gusts
- Wind is the sustained speed; gusts are brief, stronger peaks. Gusts are what move objects and complicate outdoor activities.
- Look at the direction too: it shows where the air comes from, and with it whether it will bring cold, heat or humidity.
Temperature, feels-like and UV
- The feels-like temperature combines temperature with wind and humidity: it can feel colder or hotter than the thermometer says.
- The day's maximum UV index shows the intensity of the sun at midday; from 3 it is wise to protect yourself (see the UV index guide).
A practical rule
To plan a weekend outing, check the forecast on Wednesday or Thursday; for a trip, use days 8 to 16 only as a trend and check again a few days before. For alerts, the SMN is the official source: smn.gob.ar/alertas.
General, educational information: it does not replace professional advice or official warnings.